Abstract
Ch. XIV. Rise of Prices
Though the more probable amount at the period
of greatest abundance the more probable amount
seems to be much inferior, the imagination is
frightened at the idea that so vast a quantity
as £24,000,000 was only apart of the amount
of the paper money of the Country Bankers
— and this in so long ago as 1792 — a period so much inferior
in opulence (as appears from so many other
indications) to the present.
The fall in about a twelvemonth from
the relative quantity of 90 to the relative quantity
of 83 - viz: a defalcation of little less than
a third - then the rise in the course of a couple
of years from 63 to 78 — then again in the
course of a month or two a fall from that
78 to 40 - but a trifle more than a half -
presents at no scanty field for observation.
When by the apprehensions of the Bank of England
a quantity not more than between one
and two millions, a proportion not more than
from between a tenth and a fifth had been withdrawn
from the usual quantity of the paper of that
great Banking Company in circulation, the penury pressure produced
by the defalcation of that comparatively small
quantity appears not only from the opinions of the
most enlightened judges but from the reason of the
thing as above explained - to have been very great.
But if so, what must have been the amount
of the same inconvenience from the defalcation
of almost, the half of the mass of Country
Bankers paper, a mass of which so enormous,
a sum as £20,800,000, may, (as we have seen without
without any
palpable exaggeration
be
accounted only a
part!
Art. 14 29
From all these objections the measure in question would be for
hand, supposing the currency to be already
established and established upon its own basis.
The practicability of it would not be exposed to doubt: and the
advantages derived from it would be considerable.
The paper in question being in universal demand with by the supporter
— acceptable to
every body and on all occasions, no reason can be assigned why it
should be less acceptable on the this
occasin here supposed: By receiving his money in this shape
at the Exchequer, or the Navy Office
or the a man would save himself the trouble of
an attendance on purpose to convert it
into this paper at a local Annuity Note Office.
A circumstance that in process of time would render this
exclusion of the Annuity Note market a matter rather of
necessity than choice is — that of the proper sum not to be
received at the offices in question no paper at all would be to be had.
supposing the happening of one count (which is elsewhere stated
as inevitable) the expulsion of Bank of England paper from every other
part of the circulation .. In
financing
transactions of the of these carried on in of the
Government Offices, the use of paper in contradistinction to cash is
found so convenient, and is accordingly become so spoken of as if it
were indispensable. +
Note In the whole time of the Evidence given to both Houses of
Parl ton the stoppage of the Bank in Feb. y 1792
Never also an indication of the time for the operation:
viz: when by the scarcity withdrawal subtraction of Bank
of England papers, the measure has acquired the character of a
occasion of necessity. rather than choice.
[Rudiments sheet]
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No headings
Particularly advantageous in War
1. Rate of profit per cent on each Note the greater
2. No of Notes issued before arrival at par the greater. No 1 x No 2
3. Addition to the currency the greater
1. Profit by laying up the price of Stock by taking out so much - this is
confined to War
2. then[?] lays no credit for the Surplus Sinking Fund
3. – nor for reduction of interest
{ Advantages
Financial
Period I
From the opening of the first issue to the arrival at 3 per Cents at par. }
{ No 1 Profit by difference between selling price of Notes (100) and buying price
of Stocks
No 5 do by difference between yearly and half-yearly interest?
No 2 do by interest forborne on Notes in the hands of Flying Annuitants
4 /5/ Profit by Notes lost and uncompensated. }
{ The circulation buy[?] established Receivers of public money might be obliged
to change their cash into Notes instanter. 6[?] Exchequer Bills interest
lowered. }
{ Period II
From the arrival of 3 per Cent Stock at par to the extinction of the last portion
of redeemable Stock Annuities by its conversion into Note Annuities.
No 1 ceases
No 2 is stationary; or rather diminishes.
No 3 is stationary; or rather diminishes.
No 4 encreases.
5 Approach of the profits of Period III is accelerated.
5(a) Note India Bonds interest lowered Period III From the conversion of the last
portion of Stock into Notes to the last mass of Paper of the first issue into
Paper of the 2d Issue.
8. Profit by difference between the price of the 1st issue and that of the second
= 1/5 of the whole amount
Nos 3, 2 4 5 6 7 continue but at a different rate. }
Period I
No 1. Profit by difference between selling price of Notes and buying price of
Stock.
No 2. Do by interest forborne, viz:
1. In the hands of Flying Annuitants constantly
2. In do Standing Annuitants accidentally and temporarily.
No 3 Do by Interest of Notes while kept in the hands of Government.
No 4 Do by Notes lost or /Interest on those/ mislaid for a time. and
uncompensated.
No 6. Do (if taken) by difference between Half Yearly and Yearly Interest.
No 5. Do by lowering interest on annual Exchequer Bills - Quere Navy Bills
&tc?
No 7. Do by saving on expence of management
No 8. Do by fractional difference of interest.
No 9. Reduction of 5 & 4 per Cent.
Period III
No 7. Saving of a great part of the expence of Management now paid to the Bank.
Now refuse to issue large Notes, such as it is convenient to Hoard: issue only
small ones, such as will not satisfy to will the demand of Hoarders. }
{ Note at the commencement /close/ of Period III /II/, there being no Stock to
buy up, what Annuities the Sinking Funds bring up must be in Annuity Notes. }
{ Advantages to Individuals
P + 1 1. Dividends at home.
F P + 3 2 Selling without loss
F + 2 3. Interest for […?]
F P + 5 4. Brokerage saved
F P + 4 5. Begging never[?] be done
P + 6. Settlement more commodious[?]
P 7. Compound interest feasible }
Effects – Even[?]
The Office of Notes would be indefinite but only because the creation[?] of them
would be indefinite. It would convert the […?] part of the Annuities i:e: of the
Public debt into circulating money – and thereby though it would not enable
wealth (by the […?] of possible[?] labour) it would debase the […?] […?] by the
[…?] which […?] […?] […?] […?]
1
* It may be almost instantaneous, if the redemption be made without warning, on
payment of principal and with interest up to the day: which may be done without
hardship as the expelled Stock holders will have the Sub[?] Annuities to resort
to at the same price.
The smallest sums may be redeemed first because to them the change will be most
advantageous.
The mode of paying off must be as summary[?] as of buying in.
Ch. Miscell. Effects continued
Period II
1
{The conversion in question being expected to be} /It will depend upon Government
to render the conversion in question/ indiforcibly[?] rapid, this /and thence
this/ period {will be} proportionably short. p. 1
2.
Stocks being got up to par, the addition to the quantum of currency in
circulation will cease. p. 1
3
A diminution will then take place of the addition. p. 2.
3(a)
Of The remaining influx of Note-Annuity Note paper, though equal to the whole
remaining mass of Redeemable Stock Annuities, no part can now go to make any
permanent addition to the quantum of money in actual circulation. p. 2.
4.
During the whole of this period, Stock Annuities will not be susceptible either
of rise or fall. p. 3
5.
- Nor will Note Annuities be susceptible of rise. p. 3.
Ch. Miscell. Effects continued. Period II.
6
But (the cessation of the issue, and the consequent risk being in prospect) the
effect will be that at the close of the period the rapidity of the issue will
encrease. p. 4.
7.
Stock-jobbing will cease – p. 4.
8
The quantum of business and profit of the Stock Broker, may come to be diminished
or encreased as it may happen.
p. 4.
8(a[?])
In the case of Trusts, the only real use of the Broker is to serve as a witness
of the identity of the person. p. 4.
9
Throughout this period, property will be convertible , at a moments ‘warning’,
from the shape of ready money into that of a source of income, and vice versa,
without profit or loss. p. 5.
10
[…?] paper growing scarce, Bank and Bankers will re-appear.
Miscell. Effects continued
Period III.
{ Period II
At the commencement of this period, Notes would take an immediate and rapid rise.
p. 1.
Not a rise: but that price will be kept down by the apprehension of being paid
off or reduced. See No 11. The premium could not possibly rise quite so high as
the amount of the interest for the time yet to run.
2
- partly from real scarcity – partly from speculation p. 1 }
3.
While the demand is on the encrease the supply will be on the decrease. p. 1.
4
Continuation. p. 2
5.
In time of peace, the casual part /branch/ of the Sinking Fund viz. the surplus
of taxes will soon outstrip the certain. p. 2
4(a)
The encrease of opulence contributes to the scarcity in both ways at once. p. 2.
6 or 9
Particular causes of scarcity applying to particular portions of this paper –
viz:
1. Demand from the Hoarders in the way of compound interest. p. 3
7
Hoarders at simple interest, though they want no more paper, will not now part
with what they have. p. 3.
Miscell. Effects continued
Period III.
8. {9}
Flying Annuitants do not so much as hoard what they have got themselves, p. 4.
9. or 8*.
10. Yet will give occasion to hoarding on the part of Government. p. 5
viz: to the amount of the interest on the whole mass of Flying Annuities.
7(a)
A Hoarder at simple interest, to take advantage of the premium, must pass on
paper to the amount of the year’s interest. p. 4.
9(a)
Profit by such hoarding calculated. p. 6.
10
While the prospect of rise continues, there will be a general tendency to avoid
parting with this paper – even on the part of the Flying Annuitants – and
therefore to employ cash only to pay debts. p. 7. }
10(a)
Cases of debt particularized.
Miscell. Effects continued
Period III
{ 11
Government will accordingly pay its Debts with cash rather than paper. p. 7.
12
Formation of a Bank of deposit at this period – a probable event. p. 8
12(a)
This will add nothing to wealth as Bankers paper does – but will save carriage,
counting. p. 9 &c
12(a)
Reference for advantages of paper.
12(b)
Use of paper instead of cash is matter of convenience only not necessity –
Witness the Silver of /in/ France Copper in Russia & Sweden. p. 8.
12(c)
One such Bank sufficient – but in the hands of Government . p. 9.
10
{ The amount of the premium might be added to 8 per Cent interest, stock of the
Usury Laws. p. 10 }
11
{ The extra price put upon a second emission might be higher than the premium. p.
11. }
Though the price would not be much raised, there would be a general disposition
to take more at a higher price, the continuance being assured.
Pestilential Nonsense unmasked;
or
An Anatomy of the First French Declaration of Rights (A o 1791); and of all other Declarations, actual and possible, of pretended Natural Rights in contradistinction /opposition/ to legal ones.
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A
Introd Obsns[?]
1
The provisions of the present Bill embrace a part, and but a part, of a more extensive plan the remaining parts of which will be brought forward or not according to the determination of those to whom it belongs to judge.
The main object /feature/ of it is that /comes under the head of police: and consists in the idea/ of applying a new check to depredation in all its forms, by opposing fresh difficulties and dangers to the faculty of disposing of the fruits of it. The principal means employed is the subjecting to a discretionary licence, as in the case of Public Houses such trades /occupations/ as, by reason of the mode of dealing in them have a peculiar tendency to afford facilities for that purpose.
Another feature of it consists in the {collateral} idea of extracting from the measures necessary directed more particularly to the prevention of offences, advantages /a collateral advantage/ referable to the head of conscience[?], as also a stack of political or statistical information, a secondary acquisition in its nature alike serviceable, to both these primary purposes. Three objects are accordingly pursued, and pursued in conjunction, throughout the whole – Prevention of crimes – augmentation of Revenue, and procurement of information.
Using the word economy in the most extensive sense, this is carrying economy to the highest pitch: compassing sometimes two, sometimes three ends at the expence necessary for one at an epence not greater than what would have been necessary to the at-
-tainment
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4
is necessary to the application of the proper /an effectual/ remedy, as where a defect in point of revenue is seen to flow at the same time from the same source. The advantage derivable to the revenue the money to be got up by the stopping of the gap wherever it happens to be, operates as a sort of premium to the man of finance (the first /most powerful/ among public men) for whatever assistance in such a case he may lend in such a case to his neighbour, the statisticalist and the man of police. Hence it is, that Whatever be the projects that happen to originate with either of these two, policy joins with economy in suggesting to them the advantage that may be gained in point of vigilance, and that efficiency which is the fruit of it, by calling in the man of finance, and taking him as it were into partnership, and letting him in for a share in the profits of the business.
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Introd. Observat
6
A third example is the London Hackney Coach system, in which the same junction of objects /views/ is still discernible – but not to go into any further minuteness upon an object comparatively so minute, the bare intimation may here suffice.
With which of the three classes /divisions/ of statesman the respective /several/ systems happened respectively to originate may not in every instance be easy to ascertain. The man of finance stands forth as the most probable author of all inventions: his necessities being of the most pressing kind /the most pressing in their nature/. But frequently where one of the three has been the only one to open the mine, the others have slipt in, and set to work at it, /were/ each for the /his own/ benefit of his own department: and thus it has happened – that the man of finance has from time to time added to the licence duty upon publicans for the sole purposes of finance, while an inferior rate of duty seconded[?] by the discretionary part of the licencing system was all that would have been necessary to the accomplishment of the main /principal/ objects views at least of the man of Police.
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Inserenda
Observations
VI. Miscellanea
§ 45
102
Anonymous
2
{152}
In the next place, whence comes the mischief of anonymous information, where it happens to be mischievous? – not solely from its being anonymous – not merely from the author’s being unknown: – to convert the danger into real mischief in any case, three circumstances more are requisite – viz: – that it be false as well as anonymous – and that it be acted upon – and acted upon to the prejudice of some individual, – as if it were true.
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Inserenda
Observations
VI. Miscellanea
§. 45
Anonymous
4
That there are cases in which anonymous information may have its use – that is, that real benefit may be derived to the public from there are cases in which information may be productive of benefit to the public, although the informant should not at the time of giving the information nor even at any subsequent time, make himself or be made known, will not be denied by any one.
One case is – where a crime is as yet but meditated, and an anonymous informant without saying by whom meditated, gives such information of it as serves for the prevention of it, no person in particular being called to account, or to so much as suspected of being concerned in it. Newgate is intended to be broke open tomorrow night – The Bank is intended to be broke open tomorrow night – A quantity of smuggled goods lie concealed in such or such a hole or cave – Suppose a man to give information to any such effect without making himself known, supporting it by indications, which an enquiry prove to be true. Is it better that Newgate should be emptied of its inhabitants or the Bank of its treasures, than that anonymous information of this sort should be attended to and acted upon? – The Gunpowder plot would not have
been
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Inserenda
Observations
VI. Miscellanea
§. 45
Anonymous
6
The worst that can be said against anonymous information is, that to the public in respect of the interest it has in the prevention of the offence and the punishment of the offender, it is not generally speaking altogether upon a par in point of utility – equally serviceable with information from a person known, because it is not so certain of being adequate to the object of it, viz: the prevention of the offence, or the bringing the offender to punishment. If the man were known and forthcoming, you might get out from him every thing he knew: while he remains unknown you must be content with what he gives you. But whatever it is, it may be just so much more than you could have got at all, had it not been for the faculty which the informant reserved to himself of concealing himself: and if what it amounts to happens to prove sufficient to lead to the discovery of other evidence, affording a sufficient ground for conviction, it has then all the good effects that information from a known Informant could have had. To the /The[?]/ public therefore information from a person unknown is not quite so good /desirable/ as information from a person known: because in the latter case conviction may be obtained without further evidence or research which in the other case can not be. But to /But as to/ the /with a view to the/ person informed against, it is either more favourable to his interests than information from a person known, or at any rate not less so. If he is miscreant it is not the worse for him for being anonymous, for it is only upon evidence given by a known
witness