Marginal summary and editorial marks by J. Mill.

2 Nov r 1806

Evidence

Circumstantial

Ch [...?] Phys

§ Price

4

What on this occasion I can not help suspecting is that in the statement of this case one circumstance or condition, and that an essential one, has been left out:—viz: that of the several MS alt. ‘disjunctive’ chosen by J. Mill. facts each of which is in the degree in question improbable, the existence of one or other is a fact so far from [im] ‘improbable’ J. Mill correction.probable as to be altogether certain. For this certainty though [...?] seems to be implicitly and necessarily involved in the conception of the case. In strictness of speech no conceivable event is certain, just before any and every drawing, the tickets may be burnt, the boy that should have drawn them may drop down dead or run away: the hall in which they should have been drawn may be swallowed up by an earthquake. But these and all other such contingencies are laid out of the case: and so are all others by which the drawing of the lottery in the ordinary course could have been defeated. Certainly then as that explained being assumed, as it can not but be, what is certain is that of these 50,000 tickets some one will be first drawn: and the chances against each being the same, that it should prove to be the first drawn [is] ‘is’ J. Mill addition. it is just as likely of each one as of every other. That in the case of any one of them there should be an improbability I would not take upon me to deny: whether the term be proper or no, depends upon usage: and in this case the usage seems to be fixed: fixed and by the cultivators of science, by those who have the best chance to the privilege of fixing it. But as to incredibility, I would venture to ask whether a fact of this description be in any the smallest degree incredible: the fact altogether incredible would be that as one ticket of the whole 50,000 should be the first drawn: and of each one, that it should have been the first drawn it is exactly as credible as of every other.

6

Leaving aside all consideration as to practical drawing of y e lottery, equally probable & credible y t any one partar ticket sh d be drawn first at y t any other sh d