9 Jan y 1816

Jug. True

Ch. Beginning

2

In relation to those which in respect of their supernaturality are here regarded as not true the consideration by which that conclusion has been dictated may be referred to [in] one or other of three heads

1. Exhibited by any statement report or history written at a remote period and early stage in the progress of society such as was that in question, as marks of verity capable of having been exhibited by a set of facts even supposing them all true, could afford if handed down no otherwise than through the evidence of human witnesses percipient and narrating witnesses could have afforded to any person having at this time of day, a just ground for believing them supposing them to be supernatural, to have been true.

2. In the case of the facts therein represented as supernatural, there exists a remarkable and nearly total deficiency in respect of all probabilizing circumstances.

3. In the instance of those same facts there exists in great abundance, improbabilizing circumstances—improbabilizing circumstances, several of them of such a nature as to be capable each of them taken singly or at the least two of them taken together, to outweigh whatsover probabilizing circumstances can be seen to have place: improbabilizing circumstances of this force, and of them in a considerable abundance.

3.

Grounds of these conclusions.

1. Supposing the alledged facts true, no sufficient reasons for believing at least those facts of such a nature said to have happened at that time could have been assured.

4.

2. To form a ground for belief in them theyafford no sufficient stock of probabilizing circumstances.

5.

3. Disprobabilizing circumstances they afford many: several sufficient each of itself to outweigh the probabilizing.