This folio contains red pencil editing marks probably in the hand of James Mill. Marginal summary also probably in his hand.

2 Nov r 1806

Evidence

Circumstantial

Ch. Mend[?] Phys

§ Price

2

In this argument, the reader, I think, can scarce fail of having before now suspected some fallacy: though in what particular point it lurks may not be quite so easy to pronounce. Before we endeavour to point out the exact seat or cause of the fallacy let us apply to the mathematical Doctor's mathematical argument, a counter argument, which i/ in use with mathematicians—the argumentum

ab

absurdo: let us pursue the Doctor's through its consequences, and observe to what it leads.

1. Improbable as it is, and in the degree in question, that the reported number should have been first drawn, so is it and in the same degree that any other number should have been the first drawn: and this is equally true of every other.

2. This is as much as to say in every lottery of 50,000 tickets it is 50,000 to one that no one ticket will be drawn first:

3. Whence again it follows that in that same degree it is improbable in a lottery of that number of tickets any ticket should be drawn at all.

4. As it is improbable, and in this degree that a lottery of 50,000 tickets should be drawn at all, at the same time that in London alone lotteries of this same or a greater number of tickets are actually drawn every year, it is in the same way in the power of government to give existence to facts that shall be in any given degree improbable. In this way it shall be in the power of government, to give existence to facts more improbable than the most improbable of any that ever were pretended to have had existence: and those transcendently not to say infinitely improbable facts shall still be capable of being rendered credible by ordinary evidence.

5. In the same way it may be proved, that scarce any fact ever does take place that is not improbable: improbable in an indefinite not to say infinite degree. Look at any one of the boards on the floor on which you are treading: observe the veins in it. If in that same floor there are 20 boards look at them all, there is not one to a given extent of surface, in which the picture made by the veins shall be exactly the same as in the first. Repeat this survey upon all the floors in your house: upon all the houses in your street: upon all the streets in your town: upon all the towns in your province

Apply to this argument the argumentum ab absurdo

1. If improbable y t this number sh d be drawn a prize it is equally improbable y t any other sh d.

2. There y t chances in a lottery are t t no one ticket in partar will be drawn first

3. And in y t some degree improbable y t any ticket at all sh d drawn

4. [...?] encreasing y t no. of tickets gov t may give existence to facts in an indefinite degree improbable

5. In this way all [...?] [...?] an infinite degree improbable as for example that any board sh d exist with ye partar configuration with y e one before you.